Commodity prices have dropped in recent weeks as global demand has begun to dwindle. In the last month, the S&P GSCI commodity index has dropped 17%. After a recent high in early June, average gasoline prices have dropped below $5 a gallon.
Consumer prices increased by 6.6 percent in the twelve months to May, a 40-year high.
The fall in demand that has facilitated the commodity-price fall might stifle the economy on the plus side.
Already the economy shrank by 1.6 percent in the first quarter, and many experts anticipate a decline in the second quarter. The Atlanta Fed predicts a GDP decline of 2.1 percent in the second quarter.
Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary and Harvard economist, has frequently raised the alarm bell in recent months about the possibility of a recession.
The dangers of a 2022 recession are substantially greater than I would have expected six or nine weeks ago, he said on July 1.
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Taco Bell is forced to remove a second menu item due to demand.
Oil prices in the United States are plummeting beneath $100 as concerns mount; gas prices are expected to fall.
Statistics on the Recession
In May, unemployment reached 3.2 percent, and the economy failed to enter a recession within the previous two years.
Summers told Bloomberg that a recession might arise as a self-fulfilling process as a result of the excessive inflation and decreases in people's incomes. Disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, fell by 0.1 percent in May.
JPMorgan Chase's economists have lowered their economic growth estimates. We are on the verge of a recession, according to Bloomberg. Michael Feroli, the banks' chief U.S. economist, wrote in a commentary.
Despite our desire for the economy to expand, we are still optimistic about the future, in part because we suspect employers might be reluctant to resign workers even during a period of low product demand.
A economist believes he has a one-in-three chance.
Jack Kleinhenz, the head economist for the National Retail Federation, believes the economy will avoid a recession. I am not betting on an official recession in the near future, but most recent research forecasts a risk of one in three over the next year.
In 2023, everything will be touch and go. In the meantime, a weakening economy short of a recession isn't out of the question.
The National Bureau of Economic Research determines when a recession occurs. It defines a recession as a major decline in economic activity that lasts longer than a few months.