Before the Holiday, Friday Inflection Point Markets in a Critical Territory

Before the Holiday, Friday Inflection Point Markets in a Critical Territory ...

Do you see that the "W" that''s forming for the month broken W''s are bad you can see a broken W in February, that foretold of more selling to come. W''s meant that the prior bounce (the middle of the "W") was strong resistance and no one believes it a good price.

It''s all charts, they''re tracks that show you where investors have been not where they''re going. What I''m telling you is how TA people interpret the charts and that does tell us where they are going, and TA people, unfortunately, rule the market so I guess charts can tell us where things are going but not for the reasons TA people think.

If I''m in church, for example, and notice that the word "Amen" incites the congregation to say "Amen," then I can draw the conclusion that speaking of the word "Amen" is making humans shout it out. In real-world testing, that theory would fall apart, but in the church, my logic would seem rock-solid, and I would think I am a very clever behaviorist. I found out about a specific cause and effect relationship, and found an inaccurate conclusion, because it seemed to be

Is it possible to get an Amen?

We''d better pray that the S&P can recover from our weak bounce line (4,160) next week. Notice we have a rising MACD and, if we waste that, we will be WISHING that 3,840 is support. On a day the Long-TermPortfolio (LTP) gained $200,000. Yes, you can have it both ways if you pay attention to our 5% rule!

Personal expenditure increased by 0.9 percent in March, but personal income increased by 0.4 percent, putting consumers in a position to keep pace with inflation. Our Corporate Masters aren''t caring as long as their customers keep spending, but they will also shiver to Congress the second time those customers miss a payment because?

Inflation, of course, continues to fall out of control and you know and I know and even the Federal Reserve knows that a 0.5 percent rate hike isn''t going to stop this until June 15th, that''s the Fed''s "plan," and the meeting after that is July 27th, so another Holiday with outrageous prices and then no more meetings until September 21st.

It sounds like we have a lot of holidays but it''s the Federal Reserve that has not met many meetings so far. That''s because, as we discussed in Wednesday''s Webinar, rates will increase the deficit while inflation will grow GDP, hopefully faster than the deficit increases (10% this year), so our debt to GDP ratio will eventually shrink. We will also pay the $32 trillion we already owe back in massively devalued currency so inflation is the winning play no matter what the Fed advises.

Consumer confidence (no, I don''t know the difference) and Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller on Tuesday, then PMI, ISM, Construction expenditure, Productivity, and Non-Farm Payrolls, as well as lots of Economic adventure ahead!

Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Phil:

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