The Death Cross last month caused a lot of damage, but it is only within our predicted range nothing to shake us out of our global strategy. We anticipate the 4,000 line (blue) to evenually settle down as the middle of the range between 3,680 and 4,320, where the S&P should consolidate into July earnings reports. Next, we''ll see how they go.
It''s not likey we get to more than 4,320, and if I''m right, we''ll see upside resistance at 4,000 and very strong resistance at 4,160 (lower bounce). That will bring the 200-day moving average to 4,320 around the end of June and the 50-day should then be down at 4,160, and we''ll just have to get used to the lower trading range.
These ranges, based on VALUATIONS, we simply use the chart to illustrate our point. We only seem like TA geniuses because our valuation models are so good.
To keep things going, next week we will put all of our savings into effect as we seek to re-distribute about $1 million in CASH!!! from our Short-Term Portfolio (which is where we hedge) to our other portfolios, where we will be analysing and improving our positions. That''s the only reason we didn''t cash out competitiously last month we wanted to ride out the crash to demonstrate how our system holds up through a crash and recovery cycle, though, unfortunately, we don''t
Our Money Talk Portfolio hasn''t been touched since we was on the show on February 16th, and at the time, the portfolio was at $240,926 up 140.9% in two years from a $100,000 start. We had now spent $145,000 in CASH!!! to help us navigate the downturn. This means we''ve seen a situation that includes positions as well as improving our existing ones. Nevertheless, this is the OPPORTUNITY we had hoped for to add positions as well as improve our existing ones:
- BYD Good for a new trade. Not likely we''''ll adjust this as we have posiitons more in need of fixing than this.
- GOLD A great inflation hedge and our position here is sound but we will take advantage of the dip to roll our long Jan $15s out to 2024.
- HPQ Still at the top of our range so nothing to adjust. Net $8,530 on the $20,000 spread still makes a nice trade with about 120% upside potential if HPQ simply holds $35.
- IBM Way ove the top of our range but only about $13,000 out of $30,000 potential is good for a new trade, of course.
- INTC Good for a new trade.
- LABU This Biotech ETF has been a disaster and I think, on the whole, I''''d rather put the money into MRNA than a basket of Biotechs so probably that''''s what we''''ll do next week.
- MO Still over our target.
- PARA Good for a new trade. I can''''t believe this thing is still this cheap. We''''ll be adding to this since it turns out our other positions don''''t need much fixing.
- SPWR Good for a new trade. The Government is to blame with their tariff review that is holding everything up in Solar. Our long calls have not taken much damage and owning 1,000 shares of SPWR at $25,000 is not something that worries us so we''''ll probably sell 10 more puts and otherwise wait.
- WBA Good for a new trade. I don''''t like that they are selling off Boots so I''''m not adding more but the position is fine.
So a portfolio we haven''t touched in three months has risen 22% but there''s really nothing to adjust (other than LABU) this is a typical pullback, so I guess we''ll be adding positions next Wedanesday.
Have a great weekend!