I put this chart at yesterday''s low at 3:21 pm in our Live Member Chat Room and I said to our members: "I am a fan of this program."
On the whole, it''s well-behaved. Notice at the bottom, the MACD seems oversold. That combined with we are currently testing 4,000 (which should be very bouncy) and the VIX around 35 means we are very primed for a return up right now.
The Fed is a wild card, but there are no big earnings to be expected to rock the markets. PFE is a relatively low-weighted Dow component, which is only $47.80. On Thursday, the COP will be the next biggie, but how can they have poor earnings? No, there is no mega-tech to pull the S&P down.
On the Calendar, there is nothing important other than Fed rumors but it should be a bit buoyant and then PMI and ISM services and the Fed Wednesday but, if they don''t disappoint, then it''s a good time to get things back on track.
We reorganized our short-term portfolio (STP) by investing in some of the gains we made on our hedges. At the moment (8am) we''re at 4,141, and we''re hoping to have a strong Bounce back, thus we need some decent information to act as a catalyst if we''re going to make it over the Weak Bounce line and have any chance to get there! Failing the Weak Bounce would be BAD!
- Recession is almost inevitable: former Fed Gov. Ferguson says
- PGIMs Hunt Says Bond Market Shows U.S. Risks Recession by 2024
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 2018
- Japan Seen Unlikely to Intervene on Yen With Feds Jumbo Hike Looming.
- Australian markets set to fall ahead of closely watched interest rate decision
- Koreas Fastest Inflation Since 2008 Raises Rate Pressure.
- Ukraine Latest: Pentagon Sees Poor Russian Morale, Bad Logistics
- EU Plans to Issue Detailed Guidance on Russias Rubles-for-Gas Demand
- Russian TV Warns Britain Can Be ''''Drowned In Radioactive Tsunami By Single Nuclear Sub Strike
- Kim Jong Un Warns Of ''''Preemptive Nuclear Strike'''' If North Korea Threatened
- Oil Holds Near $105 as Demand for Fuels Offsets China Lockdowns
- Home affordability is nearly the worst on record as mortgage rates spike
- Bubble hitting 50% of market, top investor warns as Fed gets ready to meet
- How Do Bubbles Form? Tulips and Gamestop Can Help Explain
- Wall Street Journal Claims "Shadow Crew" Of Billionaires Urged Elon Musk To Buy Twitter
So that''s not going to help, and for those who attend the Milken Conference on Los Angeles, the tone at the conference is kind of gruesome, with Citadel''s Ken Griffin warning yesterday that the "West faces existential problems," calling the Fed to force inflation down to 4% by the end of the year (less than half the current rate) or a 2023 recession to occur. This is basically what the Fed has been implying in the past.
For all that tone, the Fed has only raised rates once in the past 10 years and that was 0.25% at the last meeting that''s speaking loud BS and carrying a microscopic stick The Fed needs to be back at 2.5 percent by the end of the year and, in 2017, they only made half of that trip and began in January. Without being a lot more serious about this over the remaining six meetings, including tomorrow.
I believe the Fed has agreed to 0.55% just to allow the markets to be relieved if they "only" hike 0.5% tomorrow. I''d see Natural Gas (/NG) returns at $8 this morning, and Gasoline (/RB) returns to $3.50 wholesale, which is averaging $4.20 per gallon just in time for our next Holiday Weekend (28th).
Tomorrow is Star Wars Day (May the 4th be with you) and we''ll take things one day at a time. Griffin said investors will need to be "quick" and "nimble" in order to capitalize on trade opportunities. He added that the next couple of months will be "incredibly telling" and that we are in a "tough time" to deploy capital, as the overall "pie" has been declining.
According to a new Gallup survey, Economic Confidence is now lower (-39) than it was in May of 2020 (-33), when Covid became the most popular hit in April, up 70% from 10% in February, indicating that this is NOT a trend that''s improving.
The overall economy is the greatest concern of 12%, and oil prices were mentioned by 6%, but 7% of people were more concerned about immigration vs. only 5% who described Russia as their top concern, and only 4% declared Covid, while a whopping 20% cited "Poor Leadership" Fox Nation indeed! In the beginning, 2% of respondents said that economic conditions were "Excellent" after $11Tn was spent to improve them over the past 24 months. It was "ICEBERG!"
As you know, this country has a chronic labor shortage, and one reason is that 1 million people were killed with Covid and half the population has now had Covid, and many of them are still suffering long-term symptoms. Labor participation had been in decline for two decades, but fell from 63.5 percent in 2019 to just over 60% when the epidemic struck. In what extent did the Federal Reserve entice people to return to work?
People who used to be able to make ends meet are now struggling (hence the poll above) and we''re currently just 1% of 3M workers short of the government. This is something they''ll have to do more and more as our workforce matures anyway, so we might also be more content with the whip.
EpicFilmsGlobal has teamed up to produce The Crimson Permanent Assurance (Monty Python) on Vimeo.
Be careful out there!