PMI, ISM, FOMC, NFP, and Earnings Have Arrived

PMI, ISM, FOMC, NFP, and Earnings Have Arrived ...

Buffett agreed on this weekend''s annual trading for his company. That did not halt him from making $40 billion in bets this quarter by using about 1/4 of Berkshire''s cash pile mostly to Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Chevron (CVX). As we did, Buffett took advantage of the extreme volatililty to pick up some undervalued stocks, but we had a short position, albeit after his long posltion caused the stock to make what we believed were

We depend on a fixed rate for firms, according to Mr. Buffett.

CVX was overvalued at $140, and we felt it was overvalued at $170, and so far, both of us are right, despite being up $11,127 (48.7%) from our $22,825 deal in just over a month, although Buffett is up 10%, but he''s up Billions as he''s more money to play with.

Because of this fact, many players in the casino aren''t quite allowed to play in the high-roller room with Musk and Buffett, who often, and equally easily, buy companies. To some extent, Buffett''s confidence in ATI, ATVI, HPQ (we bought that one first), OXY, and CVX is one of the things I was able to hold our longs at the moment, but Munger was still doing so.

Is Warren Buffett still at the top of his gain or is it that when your Grandfather offers you something with absolute certainty that only makes you realize that he''s losing it following his advice and turns out to be totally wrong?

When I was 37, my father, David, was a well-known player, and he still had to punch me a queen and two rooks. Probably the most regretting day of my life was the fact that he was never significantly better than he was. While playing chess, people are aware of what you get, therefore you get an intimate moment in your opponent''s mind.

I''ve been watching Buffett for over 40 years, analyzing his options, and I have very rarely had the chance to disagree with him a few years ago, when he violated his own airline policy, and since then, I''ve had many instances to disagree with his choices. It doesn''t make me happy to be honest, but makes me sad.

Buffett paid $85, claiming that MSFT''s offer is $95, but as noted above, we can make 10% a lot faster than expected, and ATVI has a dangerous culture that can''t be easily cured. MSFT is certainly willing to close the deal soon, but I did not agree with attaching $85 on "probably."

Buffett reduced his positions on V and MA, which isn''t something I''d do with inflation increasing consumer expenditure, as well as forcing them to put more things on charge accounts as consumers need to borrow to make ends meet. Will it come to an end in a world of disaster with defaults and charge-offs? Most likely, but not yet.

I believe Buffett did keep AXP because it isn''t really a charge card in that people pay it off at the end of the month so they don''t generally accumulate debt they''ll defualt on. AXP also has a much lower P/E (17) than V and MA (around 30), so I agree on that one, but I''d wait for a pullback to jump in.

This month, we''ll all see what''s good to keep and what''s not this month as we enter the manic phase of earnings, but this week it''s all about the Fed and their Wednesday Rate Decision, which seems to be fixed at 0.0.5 0.75%, almost certainly 0.5% following last week''s tragic GDP number (-1.4%). So, to some extent I think the market has over-reacted to recent Fed remarks but we''re gradually hitting some serious levels on our bounce chart so let''s see

  • Dow 36,000 to 28,800 would be a 7,200-point drop with 1,440 bounces to 30,240 (weak) and 31,680 (strong).
  • S&P 4,800 is 20% above 4,000 and that makes it an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces so 4,160 (weak) and 4,320 (strong).
  • Nasdaq is using 13,500 as the base. 14,100 is the weak bounce and 14,700 is strong.
  • Russell 1,600, would be about an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces to 1,760 (weak) and 1,920 (strong)

If we can''t take 4,160 back, we added a red box to the S&P 500 since last Wednesday, but that''s the only thing that''s changed so there''s nothing to get excited or worried about unless we drop 4,160 again. A Dow decline to 31,680 at $5 per point would net $6,600 per contract and stopping out at 33,020 would cost $100 a pretty good reward/risk ratio?

This week, about 20% of the S&P 500 will report, along with a Fed Dow component, but this is not the case for the Federal Reserve:

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