We are starting to paint a picture for Apple stock () - investors ahead of the Cupertino business's earnings day, on April 28. The Apple Maven, and then we argued that this earnings season.
Heute, we turn our attention to the Mac. Our view is, therefore, that this is another segment that will likely shine next week, for the reasons that we discuss below.
Figure 1: Apple Pre-Earnings: The Mac Should Be A Winner
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Mac: Apple is leading the PC war.
Permissions: Rather, I will make a point of context. The Mac will be up against new highs in fiscal Q2, but ignore the epidemic. Note that Mac sales will not even surpass the 70% predicted this time last year see the chart below.
Mac sales had been bleak until shortly after the start of the COVID-19 crisis. In fact, prior to 2020, the PC industry had reached saturation and began to progress beyond its maturation stage. It was also believed that more capable tablets, smartphones, and video game consoles would slowly replace desktops and laptops.
The horror of the epidemic has jeopardized the story.
Mac growth in Figure 2
Data from company reports from DM Martins Research
According to company records, DM Martins Research provides information.
Note above how Mac revenues increased by more than 20% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020 versus four quarters later. I attribute much of the strength to broad industry forces that encouraged consumers to upgrade their devices or to own additional ones in preparation for home entertainment and a hybrid work environment.
Then, there was fiscal Q2 2021. Apple produced outstanding results within the Mac segment. Outside sector-wide tailwinds, the Cupertino company benefited from demand for its M1 product, which initially included a couple of Mac Air and Pro models.
When Apple's ARM-based chip 'daily became available,' I asked myself: "In the era of this day, i'm unsure."
"The Mac represents only 6% to 7% of all personal computers [shipped] worldwide. Will Apple gain market share? For the time being, it's difficult to understand, but there's a lot of discussion to it.
Apple has, for the time being, exploited its new chip technology to become a more active player in the PC space. Apple currently controls around 9% of the market, a notable improvement from as early as 12-18 months ago.
On the back of tough comps, moderate growth is surpassed by strong comps.
I believe that Apple's superior competitive position, not demand for PCs at large, will enable the Cupertino company to increase Mac sales this earnings season.
Mac shipments increased by 4% in the first three months of 2022, outperforming market leaders Lenovo and HP (HPQ) by quite a bit. Apple was an outlier, as the whole industry saw shipments decrease by 5% per day.
Given the impressive new devices Apple has brought to market, and the inflationary forces, I believe ASP (average selling price) to be fairly.
Being in the business of predicting predictions may be difficult, but I will take a look. Despite insurmountable comps, I believe Apple will provide Mac revenue growth of 8% in fiscal Q2. If so, I believe that investors will be pleased.
Mac sales this quarter will have increased at an annualized rate of 21% in the last three years, according to estimates. For an industry that many anticipate to be in its early stages of decline in 2019, this number isn't bad at all.
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Last year, Apple increased Mac sales by an astounding 70% in fiscal Q2. Fast forward 12 months, PC deliveries at large have declined, but Apple appears to be doing significantly better than its competitors with its M1 processor. What are your expectations for the Mac on earnings day, next week?
(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or more stocks mentioned in this report. The article may also contain affiliate links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for your support for Apple Maven.)
