Sberbank Expects A Full Economic Recovery By The End Of 2021
Sberbank expects a full recovery of the Russian economy in the fourth quarter of 2021, said Vladimir Sitnov, senior Vice President of the Bank.
"We do not expect a full-fledged economic recovery until the end of 2021. If we take the base of the first quarter of 2019, we believe that by the fourth quarter of 2021, this curve will reach approximately the same level," he said, speaking at the Sberbank conference for housing developers.
The coronavirus pandemic in the spring became the main threat to the Russian economy: the authorities expected that closed borders, falling oil prices due to low demand, and restrictions imposed due to the virus inside the country would lead to a decrease in Russia's GDP this year for the first time since 2015.
However, the Russian economy performed better than expected in the second quarter: GDP fell by 8% instead of the 9.6% expected by the Ministry of economic development and the Central Bank's estimate of 9-10%. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Zabotkin noted that the dynamics of GDP in July-August are better than the regulator's expectations. As a result, the results of the year may also be higher than its forecast for a decline in GDP of 4.5-5.5%. And the Ministry of economic development has already improved expectations for a downturn in the economy in 2020 to 3.9% from 4.8%.
At the same time, the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Ksenia Yudaeva, said in late July that the Russian economy would recover to the level of 2019 only in the first quarter of 2022.