EIA Has Changed Its Forecasts For The Oil Market For 2020-2021
The energy information administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) raised its forecast for the average price of North sea Brent crude oil in 2020 to 41.9 per barrel with the same 41,42 dollars for barrel, follows from data monthly short-term forecast EIA.
For 2021, the forecast for the price of Brent crude oil was lowered to $49.07 from $ 49.53 per barrel.
Also, the EIA forecast for the average price of WTI crude oil for 2020 increased to $38.99 per barrel against the August estimate of $38.5, and for 2021 — lowered to $45.07 per barrel from $ 45.53.
The US Department of Energy also increased, compared with the August estimate, the forecast of average oil production in the country for the current year by 120 thousand barrels per day, to 11.38 million, and reduced for 2021 — by 60 thousand barrels, to 11.08 million barrels per day, according to the monthly short-term forecast of the energy information administration of the Ministry (EIA).
In August, the Ministry of energy, on the contrary, lowered the forecast for oil production for 2020 and raised it for 2021.
Oil production in the country last year averaged 12.25 million barrels per day.
Global oil production in August decreased by 9.7 million barrels per day in annual terms, to 91.5 million barrels per day.
"According to EIA estimates, global production of liquid hydrocarbons in August averaged 91.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 9.7 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year," the report said.
This decrease largely reflects the reduction in production by OPEC+ countries, as well as a reduction in drilling operations and production in the United States due to low oil prices, the country's energy Ministry writes.
The Agency expects global oil production in 2021 to be 99.3 million barrels per day.
Thus, it slightly lowered the August forecast for global production next year at 99.4 million barrels per day.
In General, the Ministry expects a relatively balanced oil market, taking into account the reduction of excess inventory in 2021.
"The EIA expects the reduction in commercial oil reserves in the fourth quarter to be 3.1 million barrels per day before the market reaches a relatively balanced level in 2021, and the reduction in reserves will move to a pace of 0.3 million barrels per day," the report said.
Global demand for oil in August was 94.3 million barrels per day, compared to 93.3 million barrels per day in July, according to the document.
The forecast for global oil demand in 2020 is maintained at the level of 93.1 million barrels per day.
"According to the EIA forecast, global oil consumption will average 93.1 million barrels per day in 2020, which is 8.3 million barrels per day less than in 2019, then return to growth of 6.5 million barrels per day in 2021," the report said.
It is added that the EIA expects demand in 2021 at the level of 99.6 million barrels per day.