Experts Predict China's GDP Growth Of Only 2.2% In 2020
China's economy will grow by only 2.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic and trade conflict with the US, which will be the smallest GDP growth in a year since 1976, according to the results of a survey of 42 specialists, which was conducted by Reuters and published on Friday.
The GDP growth forecast of 2.2% percent is the median of 42 economists' expectations. If their assumptions turn out to be true, the growth of the Chinese economy will be the smallest since 1976, when China was still pursuing the policy of the "cultural revolution." The Agency's April survey predicted growth of 1.8%.
In the second quarter of 2020, China's economy grew by 3.2% compared to the same period last year. Between January and March, the country's GDP shrank by 6.8%, according to Reuters.
According to experts, given the low level of consumption (the country's per capita income fell by 1.3% in the first half of the year), the economic recovery will depend on public investment. The situation in the service sector, such as tourism and entertainment, is improving more slowly than in the manufacturing and construction industries, the economists add.
Another reason to not optimistic of forecasts was the deterioration of relations between the US and China. Washington demanded to close the Consulate General in Houston, and China - the American Consulate in Chengdu.
"Growing tensions between China and the United States, disruptions in supply chains and expectations of lower profits may lead to pessimism in business circles and reduce the level of trade and manufacturing activity," Reuters quoted economist Wang Tao from UBS international investment Bank as saying.
In July, the State Statistical Office (SSO) of China reported that China's GDP for the first six months of 2020 declined by 1.6% due to the negative impact of the pandemic.