The Pandemic brings forward expectations for peak oil demand
Oct 18, The COVID-19 epidemic this year has slowed oil production and pushed forward forecasts from energy majors, producers, and analysts for when the world's demand for oil may reach its peak.
Because of the epidemic, the demand for barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 was about 100 million barrel per year (BPD) and has yet to rise to that level.
The rise of electric vehicles and a shift to renewable energy have also led to revisions in forecasts.
There is no consensus on when oil demand may peak, but the predictions could affect oil exploration and development plans.
BP - 2019 may have been the year's highest petrodollar.
BP provides three scenarios, all showing the pandemic reduced demand growth. In one scenario, the British energy company claims demand may have reached its highest in 2019, while another of its scenarios sees a peak in 2035.
EQUIPMENT - Between 2027 and 2028.
The Norwegian oil and gas producer expects oil demand to rise from 2027 to 2028, two to three years sooner than originally estimated. In its simplest scenario, Equinor projects oil demand at 93 million barrels per day in 2030 and 84 million bottlers in 2050.
BERNSTEIN ENERGY - Between 2025 and 2030 Between 2020 and 2020
Consultancy Bernstein Energy anticipates that demand will return to 2019 levels by 2023 and reach a peak between 2025 and 2030.
"Oil demand hasn't reached a peak, but it's not that far off," according to the firm'' s analysts.
RYSTAD ENERGY - 2026.
Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that demand will reach a 101.6 million bpd peak in 2026, down from its November projection of achieving 106 million Bpc peak by 2028.
"The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent industries is accelerating and is expected to wipe away oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast," Rystad wrote.
TOTALENERGIES - Before 2030 TOtalENEGIES
The French oil giant, which had previously predicted a peak around 2030, now claims demand is expected to peak before 2030 and drop to 40 million to 64 million barrels per day by 2050.
Within 10 years or by the mid 2030s, IEA recommends that by 2030 or within the next 10 or 15 years.
In all of its future demand scenarios, the Paris-based International Energy Agency anticipates a peak in oil demand. read more
It places the date in its most conservative Stated Policies Scenario forecast with a very gradual decline in the mid2030s, but in Net Zero by 2050, demand will plateau within ten years and increase by nearly three-quarters by 2020.
GOLDMAN SACHS - After 2030 GODMAN SHACHES
The rise in electric cars, renewable energy, and plastics recycling will sap oil demand, while the rise of developing nations will push a peak in demand past 2030, according to Goldman Sachs.
"We do not believe global oil demand will peak before 2030 in our base case, driven by strong fundamental economic growth, emerging market demographics, and relatively low oil prices," the bank stated.
VITOL - 2030s: Vitrol 2030er
By the early to mid 2030s, demand will increase to 110 million bpd, according to the commodities trading house.
"The consensus amongst all commentators out there, and my firm here included, is that the peak for oil demand is still ahead of us," said Vitol Asia Chief Executive Officer Mike Mueller.
OPEC - Around 2040 2040
In its first forecast for peak demand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries stated that demand would rebound in the next two years and reach a plateau by 2040.
In its World Oil Outlook, it stated that "oil demand is expected to rise by almost 10 million barrels per day on a global scale, from 99.7 million bpd in 2019 to 109.3 million bottles per year in 2040 and 108.1 million bottlers in 2030."
SHELL - No date, but a peak may have been reached. SHELLE No exact date but peak might have come to be reached at some point.
Royal Dutch Shell hasn't indicated a peak demand date, but Chief Executive Ben van Beurden suggested earlier this year that the epidemic may have reached peaks, adding: "If demand recovers at all, it will take... ages to recover."
Even when the crisis is more or less over, energy demand, and certainty mobility demand will be lower. Will it mean that it will never recover? It's likely too early to say, but it will have a permanent impact for years, he added.