Sea Level Will Rise By A Meter By The End Of The Century, According To The World's Leading Climatologists
The world's leading climate scientists believe that the level of the World's oceans will rise by more than a meter by the end of the century, and by 2300, by 5 meters, if the world's governments do not comply with the Paris agreements and other treaties to combat global warming. The scientists published their findings in the scientific journal Climate and Atmospheric Science.
"Our research is based on the opinions of more than a hundred leading experts in the field of climate science and sea-level rise. It emphasizes that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is critical for this indicator to grow as slowly as possible," commented one of its authors, an associate professor at the University of Maynooth (Ireland) Niamh Cahill.
Almost all climatologists now do not doubt that global warming exists and that it will radically change the face of the planet if the increase in temperatures can not be contained at the level of 1.5 °C. This is evidenced not only by hundreds of computer models of the planet's climate, but also by data from thousands of climate satellites, land weather stations, and ocean buoys.
Scientists assume that as a result, due to the melting of the glaciers of Greenland and the Arctic, as well as the most vulnerable ice masses of Antarctica, the level of the World's oceans will grow significantly. If we limit, and subsequently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this will, if not stop, at least significantly slow down this process.
In recent years, as Cahill and his colleagues note, scientists have prepared dozens of forecasts for how sea levels will rise over the next few centuries. They were based on different climate data and different sets of assumptions. This number of predictions is important from a scientific point of view, but because different forecasts show different results, it is difficult to isolate something important from such studies.
So Cahill and his colleagues took a different approach to the problem. They did not develop their model to calculate sea level in the future, but instead interviewed one hundred leading researchers in the field and tried to bring their estimates to a common denominator.
It turned out that almost all experts believed that the sea level would rise not by 30-50 cm, as indicated by official UN forecasts, but by a meter or even more if the level of greenhouse gas emissions increases at the same rate. More accurate predictions, according to the interviewed scientists, are almost impossible to make since scientists do not yet understand how the glaciers of Greenland will melt soon.
The General opinion of climatologists is as follows: if the Paris agreement is partially implemented and the increase in temperatures can be stopped at 2 °C, the sea level will rise by about half a meter by 2100, and by the beginning of the XXIV century will rise by another 0.5–2 meters.
Cahill and his colleagues hope that the results of their work will help diplomats and officials to understand more clearly how greenhouse gas emissions and sea-level rise are related, as well as to take appropriate measures to prevent the most dangerous scenarios.